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Amid the widespread uncertainty following the US strikes on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and the declaration by Donald Trump that the US will “manage” the country and “seize control of the oil”, a single fact remains evident – they set a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and abduct its leader – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other parts of the leadership-stricken government are considerably more radical.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Renaming the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might enables it to do as it wishes with little consequence: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that the oil resources of Venezuela means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

It is widely rejected the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is motivated by the lure of oil as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not a result of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode underscores the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

We are not yet 12 months into his four-year term. World leaders may come to rue the day if they remain quiet at this juncture, given what – and who – could be next.